Quantifying the strength of gunshot residue (GSR) evidence requires scientific knowledge about the number of particles expected to be found on individuals who were or were not involved in a shooting. However, controlled experiments demand expensive resources in terms of microscope time and labor, which restricts the data of most studies to only a small group of individuals. We suggest a novel method that exploits data collected routinely on suspects during the daily work of forensic laboratories. These observational data relate to both persons who were involved in a shooting and innocent individuals. We suggest a mixture approach with different models for the number of gunshot residue particles in each group and develop an iterative algorithm to estimate the probabilities of observing the evidence under the defense proposition that the suspect is innocent and under the prosecution assumption that he is not. The method is applied to data of more than 500 suspects collected by the Israel National Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science. The analysis shows that the probability of finding three or more GSR particles on the hands of innocent suspects is very small, less than 1.5 in 1000 cases. Our new method enables researchers to use data on real cases, possibly supplemented by experimental data, in order to estimate the probabilities of a given GSR finding under the defense and prosecution propositions. © 2020 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a prospective tool for identifying species or populations at highest risk. However, pattern-to-process methods such as EWS have a multitude of challenges to overcome to be useful, including the low signal to noise ratio of ecological systems and the need for high quality time-series data. The inclusion of trait dynamics with EWS has been proposed as a more robust tool to predict population collapse. However, the length and resolution of available time series are highly variable from one system to another, especially when generation time is considered. As yet it remains unknown how this variability with regards to generation time will alter the efficacy of EWS. Here we take both a simulation- and experimental-based approach to assess the impacts of relative time-series length and resolution on the forecasting ability of EWS. We show that EWS’ performance decreases with decreasing time series length. However, there was no evident decrease in EWS performance as resolution decreased. Our simulations suggest a relative time-series length between ten and five generations as a minimum requirement for accurate forecasting by abundance-based EWS. However, when trait information is included alongside abundance-based EWS, we find positive signals at lengths half of what was required without them. We suggest that, in systems where specific traits are known to affect demography, trait data should be monitored and included alongside abundance data to improve forecasting reliability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Evaluating the goodness of fit of logistic regression models is crucial to ensure the accuracy of the estimated probabilities. Unfortunately, such evaluation is problematic in large samples. Because the power of traditional goodness of fit tests increases with the sample size, practically irrelevant discrepancies between estimated and true probabilities are increasingly likely to cause the rejection of the hypothesis of perfect fit in larger and larger samples. This phenomenon has been widely documented for popular goodness of fit tests, such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. To address this limitation, we propose a modification of the Hosmer-Lemeshow approach. By standardizing the noncentrality parameter that characterizes the alternative distribution of the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, we introduce a parameter that measures the goodness of fit of a model but does not depend on the sample size. We provide the methodology to estimate this parameter and construct confidence intervals for it. Finally, we propose a formal statistical test to rigorously assess whether the fit of a model is acceptable for practical purposes, albeit not perfect. The proposed method is compared in a simulation study with a competing modification of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, based on repeated subsampling. We provide a step-by-step illustration of our method using a model for post-neonatal mortality developed in a large cohort of more than 300,000 observations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The reporting of a likelihood ratio (LR) calculated from probabilistic genotyping software has become more popular since 2015 and has allowed for the use of more complex mixtures at court. The meaning of „inconclusive” LRs and how to communicate the significance of low LRs at court is now important. We present a method here using the distribution of LRs obtained from nondonors. The nondonor distribution is useful for examining calibration and discrimination for profiles that have produced LRs less than about 104 . In this paper, a range of mixed DNA profiles of varying quantity were constructed and the LR distribution considering the minor contributor for a number of nondonors was compared to the expectation given a calibrated system. It is demonstrated that conditioning genotypes should be used where reasonable given the background information to decrease the rate of nondonor LRs above 1. In all 17 cases examined, the LR for the minor donor was higher than the nondonor LRs, and in 12 of the 17 cases, the 99.9 percentile of the nondonor distribution was lower when appropriate conditioning information was used. The output of the tool is a graph that can show the position of the LR for the person of interest set against the nondonor LR distribution. This may assist communication between scientists and the court. © 2020 American Academy of Forensic Sciences. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.Nielsen et al.1 recently highlighted the need for additional studies detailing hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) pain before giving specific treatment recommendations. Few studies have evaluated HS-specific pain using patients’ own words and this study was designed to address this gap. A descriptive understanding of different elements of the pain experience will aid dermatologists, pain management specialists and health psychologists in the comprehensive, interdisciplinary assessment and treatment of HS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Global change includes invasion by exotic (non-native) plant species and altered precipitation patterns, and these factors may affect terrestrial carbon (C) storage. We measured soil C changes in experimental mixtures of all exotic or all native grassland plant species under two levels of summer drought stress (0 and +128 mm). After eight years, soils were sampled in 10 cm increments to 100 cm depth to determine if soil C differed among treatments in deeper soils. Total soil C (organic + inorganic) content was significantly higher under native than exotic plantings, and differences increased with depth. Surprisingly, differences after eight years in C were due to carbonate and not organic C fractions, where carbonate was ~ 250 g C m-2 lower to 1 m soil depth under exotic than native plantings. Our results indicate that soil carbonate is an active pool and can respond to differences in plant species traits over timescales of years. Significant losses of inorganic C might be avoided by conserving native grasslands in sub-humid ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.BACKGROUND Allergic transfusion reactions (ATRs) are a common adverse reaction to transfusion therapy and can be potentially fatal. Washing blood products is the most effective strategy for preventing ATRs; however, washed products, especially platelets, are not available at many blood centers. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS A 29-year-old female patient with an advanced myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm, unclassifiable, developed severe ATRs after four platelet transfusions in a week. She showed no response to premedication with histamines and steroids and still had severe ATRs with the next three platelet transfusions. A laboratory workup revealed that her IgA level was slightly decreased, while her haptoglobin level was normal. Anti-IgA testing was not available. The patient decided to undergo allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) transplantation. As the onset of symptoms ATR, which were similar to Type 1 hypersensitivity reactions mediated by IgE antibodies, occurred immediately after transfusion and omalizumab is a humanized monoclonal anti-IgE, we elected to offer off-label use of omalizumab before administering the conditioning regimen. RESULTS Omalizumab was injected subcutaneously at a dose of 150 mg. Surprisingly, transfusion reactions fully resolved within 24 hours. No serious side effects were noticed. Another 150 mg of omalizumab was administered 1 day before PBSC infusion. The patient remained asymptomatic without any signs of ATRs throughout the whole period of transplantation. Seven months after transplantation, the patient was in complete remission without overt complications. CONCLUSION This case suggests that omalizumab is a promising new alternative treatment for the prevention of severe ATRs. © 2020 AABB.KEY POINTS The vagus nerve has been implicated in mediating behavioral effects of the gut microbiota on the central nervous system. This study examined whether the secretory products of commensal gut bacteria can modulate the excitability of vagal afferent neurons with cell bodies in nodose ganglia. Cysteine proteases from commensal bacteria increased the excitability of vagal afferent neurons via activation of protease-activated receptor 2 and modulation of the voltage-dependence of Na+ conductance activation. Lipopolysaccharide, a component of the cell wall of Gram-negative bacteria, increased the excitability of nodose ganglia neurons via TLR4-dependent activation of nuclear factor kappa B. Our study identified potential mechanisms by which gut microbiota influences the activity of vagal afferent pathways, which may in turn impact autonomic reflexes and behaviour. ABSTRACT Behavioural studies have implicated vagal afferent neurons as an important component of the microbiota-gut-brain axis. However, the mecT-1, recapitulated the effect of MET-1 supernatant on NG neurons. Lastly, we compared the effects of MET-1 supernatant and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from Escherichia coli 05B5 on NG neuron excitability. LPS increased the excitability of NG neurons in a toll like receptor 4 (TLR4 )-dependent and PAR2 -independent manner, whereas the excitatory effects of MET-1 supernatant were independent of TLR4 activation. Together, our findings suggest that cysteine proteases from commensal bacteria increase the excitability of vagal afferent neurons by the activation of PAR2 . This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. 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